India’s Water Plans: Heightening Tensions with Pakistan Over the Indus River
India’s water plans for the Indus River system, which it shares with Pakistan, are causing a major stir, potentially pushing the already strained relationship between the two nations to a boiling point.
Following a deadly terror attack in Indian-administered Kashmir in April, India suspended its participation in the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a landmark 1960 agreement brokered by the World Bank that governs water sharing between the two countries. The attack, which India blamed on Pakistan-backed terrorists, further escalated tensions between the nuclear-armed neighbors.
A Historic Treaty Under Strain
The IWT allocates waters from six rivers between India and Pakistan. India controls the eastern rivers, while Pakistan has rights to the western rivers, including the Indus. While India is allowed limited use of the western rivers, the treaty mandates that it not significantly affect water flow to Pakistan.
Despite a ceasefire agreement reached in May, India maintains its suspension of the treaty, citing Pakistan’s continued support for terrorism. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has stated that the treaty will remain “in abeyance” until Pakistan takes concrete steps to stop cross-border terrorism. India has also made it clear that it is willing to engage with Pakistan only on issues related to terrorism and the return of territories it claims as its own in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).
India’s Bold Moves
Amidst the heightened tensions, India is accelerating plans to increase its water extraction from the Indus river system, focusing particularly on the Chenab, Jhelum, and Indus rivers, primarily allocated to Pakistan under the treaty.
The Ranbir Canal Expansion: A Cause for Concern
One of the most significant projects under consideration is the expansion of the Ranbir Canal on the Chenab River. Currently about 60 kilometers long, the plan is to extend it to 120 kilometers. This expansion would allow India to divert significantly more water, potentially reducing the flow into Pakistan’s Punjab province, a vital agricultural region.
India is also exploring other irrigation and hydropower projects that could further reduce water availability downstream. These include plans to construct dams on the western rivers, something India has not previously done under the treaty’s restrictions.
Pakistan’s Response: A Powder Keg
Pakistan relies heavily on the Indus river system for its agriculture and energy production. Any substantial reduction in water flow could have devastating consequences for its food security, economy, and energy supply.
Islamabad has already reported a significant drop in water levels at a critical receiving point following Indian maintenance work on Indus projects. This offers a glimpse into the potential pressure Pakistan could face if India proceeds with its ambitious plans. Pakistan has condemned India’s suspension of the treaty and warned that any attempt to halt or divert water flows would be considered an “act of war.”
The Indus Waters Treaty has long been lauded as one of the most successful water-sharing agreements globally, having survived multiple wars and ongoing tensions. However, the current situation raises serious concerns about its future, leaving many wondering if the Indus River will become the next flashpoint in the India-Pakistan conflict.
