India-Pakistan Standoff: What’s Next for Islamabad After Operation Sindoor?

Rising Tensions: India-Pakistan on Edge After Operation Sindoor

India-Pakistan relations have reached a boiling point following Operation Sindoor, a military operation conducted by Indian forces in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir early Wednesday. Pakistan has firmly stated its right to respond to this action at a time and place of its choosing, raising fears of further escalation between the two nuclear-armed nations.

To understand Pakistan’s potential responses and the wider implications, Hindustan Times reached out to retired military officers and diplomats for their insights.

Possible Scenarios: From Shelling to Terrorism

Scenario 1: Intensified Shelling Across the Line of Control

Tensions have already been escalating along the Line of Control (LoC), the de facto border separating Indian-administered Kashmir and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. In recent weeks, Indian forces have accused Pakistan of numerous ceasefire violations. Following Operation Sindoor, Pakistan intensified shelling across the LoC, targeting civilian areas in India and reportedly resulting in civilian casualties.
Former Northern Army Commander Lt. Gen. DS Hooda believes the 2021 ceasefire agreement is effectively dead, predicting increased firing on both sides of the LoC.

Scenario 2: Limited Air Strikes

Another possibility, according to retired Northern Army Commander Lt. Gen. BS Jaswal, is that Pakistan might retaliate with limited air strikes on Indian military airfields. The aim of such strikes would be to cripple India’s capacity to respond to Pakistani air operations or support its ground troops. However, Indian officials stress that Operation Sindoor was solely focused on targeting terror camps and not military installations, making any Pakistani air strikes a major escalation.

Jaswal emphasizes that India would respond forcefully to any Pakistani air attacks, including intense shelling across the LoC and possible retaliatory air strikes on Pakistani military targets.

Despite some nuclear rhetoric from Pakistan, retired Indian military officials are unanimous in their belief that Islamabad is not seeking a limited nuclear war or a full-blown nuclear exchange with India.

“My own sense is that Pakistan’s military retaliation will be limited,” says Lt. Gen. Hooda.

Scenario 3: Escalated Terror Attacks

Former Vice Chief of Army Staff Lt. Gen. AS Lamba believes that Pakistan might opt for a heightened campaign of terrorism against India as its primary response.

“Though Pakistan can, it must guard against escalating terror strikes on sensitive installations and other targets in India which will meet a tough response,” says Lt. Gen. Lamba.

Lamba warns that direct military action against Indian forces could lead to a dangerous escalation, something Pakistan may be reluctant to undertake given its current internal security and economic challenges.

“If Pakistan responds to India’s strike on terror camps with a strong military option, or even artillery and missile strikes on border towns and civilian populations, such escalation would draw a stern response from India, that Pakistan with its internal security and economic crisis will find it difficult to handle,” adds Lt. Gen. Lamba.

Diplomatic Options Waning?

Scenario 4: Backchannel Diplomacy Only?

Former Indian Permanent Representative to the UN Syed Akbaruddin suggests that India and Pakistan have exhausted their traditional diplomatic avenues. Both nations have implemented trade bans, closed their airspace, revoked visas, and expelled each other’s citizens and diplomats. Pakistan’s efforts to garner multilateral diplomatic support, including through the UN, have yielded little success.

“The only diplomatic option is a back channel. There cannot be a front channel as there is no space for that,” says Akbaruddin.

Akbaruddin points to recent examples of back-channel diplomacy, such as those established between Russia and the United States and between the United States and Iran, as potential models for India and Pakistan. However, he acknowledges that Pakistan is likely to maintain a more assertive stance in the current situation.